#3: Lightning Strikes & Traffic Jams
We often focus on negligible risks and ignore the biggest danger.
“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself” – FDR (not a pilot)
Which is more dangerous, a lightning strike or a traffic jam? A test pilot needs to know if the risk they’re taking is like one or the other.
Who cares what pilots at the Air Force Test Center (AFTC) think? Answer: anyone who wants the US Air Force to use their tech for combat with a major acquisition program.
AFTC pilots like Chuck Yeager flew these missions when one of them would die each week. This helped aviation combat deaths fall 25% in WW2 to ~6% by the 1960s. But in 2025, 548 deaths occurred amongst millions of aviators, compared to 27,365 deaths from automobile crashes. People are considering whether we need the AFTC anymore.
Whether you’re wasting bad guys or writing contracts, you should do so knowing that Air Force culture deeply respects these high stakes low odds events, i.e. airplane crashes. The game is breaking them down to scenarios that are either negligible odds (lightning strike), or acceptable stakes (traffic jam).